An analysis of Gaza casualty data by Israel Policy Forum’s Gabriel Epstein, recently highlighted by Kyle Orton, directly challenges the central element of the “Israeli genocide” narrative. That narrative falsely portrays Israel as deliberately targeting women and children, especially children, even though the underlying casualty data reveal that it is military-age males who are disproportionately represented among the dead. Drawing on Epstein’s analysis, Orton points out that UN agencies and NGOs continued to amplify Hamas’ casualty claims supporting its genocide narrative even after Hamas’ own underlying data no longer supported the percentages cited in its public claims and news releases.
Epstein’s analysis of the Ministry’s list covering 72,835 reported deaths through May 7, 2026, shows that nearly 70 percent were male. Adult men accounted for 49.5 percent of the total, while children, by contrast, accounted for 28 percent, although children made up about 47 percent of Gaza’s prewar population. The majority of children listed among the dead (60%) were male, and the imbalance grows among older minors. Males comprised 68.1% of deaths among 12- to 17-year-olds and 71.9% among those ages 15 to 17.
The Hamas Health Ministry does not distinguish between combatants and civilians, so the figures cannot establish how many of those killed were combatants. However, the heavy male disproportion, especially among older minors, is particularly significant because Hamas has a documented history of recruiting and training boys under 18. UN reports have verified recruitment by Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades and repeatedly documented military camps for minors, including boys as young as 14.
Orton points out that Hamas continued to publicize casualty claims that its own underlying data no longer supported, and that UN agencies and NGOs continued to repeat those false claims. UN Women’s factsheet in January 2024 stated that 70 percent of Gaza fatalities were women or children and identified the Gaza Media Office as the source for that estimate. As recently as April 2026, UN Women estimated that more than 38,000 women and girls had been killed — roughly 75% higher than the female death toll contained in the underlying Hamas data.
That is not to say that the underlying Hamas casualty counts can be relied upon either. Orton identifies systemic problems with the list beyond the fact that it does not distinguish between fighters and civilians. For example, Hamas’ casualty count includes Palestinians killed by misfired Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad rockets, intra-Palestinian fighting, common crimes, accidents and natural causes.
Although the demographic breakdown cannot determine the civilian-combatant ratio on its own, it certainly undermines the portrayal of Israel as primarily killing women and children that has repeatedly been invoked to support the genocide libel. While Hamas’ casualty figures are too compromised to establish an accurate death toll, it is noteworthy that even its own numbers undermine the genocide charge. The demographic pattern is consistent with a conventional urban war against an embedded terrorist organization and directly contradicts the claim that Israel has been systematically targeting Gaza’s civilian population for destruction.
Gabriel Epstein, analysis of the Gaza Health Ministry casualty list, August 3, 2026
“HAMAS’s Own Gaza Death Toll Statistics Undermine the ‘Israeli Genocide’ Narrative,” Kyle Orton, It Can Always Get Worse, September 26, 2026
Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, Gaza population age breakdown
“Children and Armed Conflict,” Report of the UN Secretary-General, 2019
“Children and Armed Conflict,” Report of the UN Secretary-General, 2020
“Gender Alert: The Gendered Impact of the Crisis in Gaza,” UN Women, January 2024
